Presidential Election 2011

The results of the Guatemala Presidential elections, which took place on Sunday, 11th September, left two candidates to run-off on the 6th November. According to PlazaPública, Otto Pérez Molina gained 36.08% and Manuel Baldizón was second with 23.3%. Presidential elections in Guatemala, as well as Department and Mayoral elections, are seldom about the political parties involved. The parties tend to be used as personal vehicles for contenders in order to achieve their ambitions and, as such, tend not to have a long life span. As such, they have little or no relevance though this may change. It will be interesting to see if Sandra Torres decides to run, or is allowed to stand, in the next elections in 2016 on the UNE ticket. UNE, as well as Pérez Molina’s PP, did well in the Mayoral elections, much down to Torres for UNE.

So come the 6th November, Guatemalans should they vote, will have a choice between a former military and a business man – each with their own murky backgrounds and each who wield considerable power and influence among those who rule Guatemala. I mentioned, ‘should they vote’ on purpose. Guatemalans tend to turn out more for the 1st round of these elections rather than the run-offs. Elections tend to be local affairs and the capital is so far away and can have very little affect on peoples’ day to day lives. For the 1st round, the local Department and Mayoral candidates are very generous in ensuring that transport is laid on for their supporters come election day. For the 2nd round, people have to make their own way and considering the costs involved, many decide to stay at home. The more local the election, the more interest is taken.

An interesting blog entry came along on the Central American Politics blog page regarding the upcoming Presidential elections and stories about Otto Pérez Molina, the front runner. The elections are due to be held on that most of iconic dates for the Americas, both North and South – September 11th.

There was an interview with Alan Nairn where Pérez Molina takes the role of a ‘matter of fact’ functionary of the State and promoter of Israeli ordnance in front of the camera – no doubt ordnance used in the genocide. The short video is titled Otto Pérez Molina – a biography.

We also know that a letter has been sent recently to the United Nations Special Rapporteur on Torture alleging that Pérez Molina was directly involved in the systematic use of torture and acts of genocide during the long civil war in Guatemala. Specifically, he was on the ground and in command in the Ixil triangle in 1982 during the village by village massacre campaign as part of that genocide.

Lest we forget, Francisco Goldman’s interview on Democracy Now effectively implicating Pérez Molina in the murder of Bishop Juan Gerardi in 1998, two days after the Bishop published ‘Guatemala: Nunca Más’, the report which placed the blame for the vast majority of the violations of the internal conflict on the government and the army. You can see the interview here and a transcript here.

In this year of the Guatemala Presidential election, it is easy to get caught up on the violence and absurdities that generally characterise these events - it is reasonable to think of violence and absurdity being the ‘maldición guatemalteca’. Ironically, this curse was well portrayed by Miguel Ángel Asturias in his seminal El Señor Presidente.

A paper, published last year, provides a very worthwhile contribution to an understanding of contemporary Guatemala. By highlighting the various forces at play, it draws out the complexities and challenges in the exercise of democracy that the people face this year. A state under siege: elites, criminal networks and institutional reform in Guatemala, by Ivan Briscoe and Martín Rodríguez Pellecer, is available on the Human Security Gateway, a searchable online database of human security-related resources.

As we have noted earlier here and here, it cannot be a huge surprise to note that the President and his wife are seeking to divorce so that Sandra Colom is legally entitled to stand for the upcoming Presidential election. Will the Arzus follow this path as well? We shall see. For this and more, you can read this article from the Guatemala Times.

We’ve noted before about the possible twists and turns in the forthcoming elections especially with regard to the legality, or otherwise, of the putative candidates. Now it seems, the candidature of Otto Pérez Molina has been called into question.

According to a recent post on CERIGUA, the Criminal Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice (CSJ) has decided to reopen the case of disappeared guerrilla Efrain Bámaca, husband of Jennifer Harbury, whose case we featured here. It seems that the Supreme Court could strike him out of the elections on ethical grounds though that must seem highly unlikely at this stage. Whatever next?

It is a curious fact for Guatemala Presidential elections that the person who came second in the previous elections will win the following one. This would mean that Otto Perez Molina will win and a poll in El Periódico gave him just under 40% while the second place candidate had 11%. This poll was taken despite the Constitutional ruling that electioneering and campaigning is illegal until the Supreme Electoral Court of Guatemala officially calls an election in May. It seems dubious to me. As we noted previously here, there are several suggested candidates who are constitutionally barred from running for the Office.

In a very interesting article on the forthcoming elections, Barbara Schieber, in the Guatemala Times, states that the elections to the Guatemala Constitutional Court will take place in April this year, and it will be up to the members of this Court to rule on the legality, or otherwise, of the Presidential candidates. It seems there is all to play for.

“Guatemala's election campaign got off to a controversial and premature start, with an evangelical pastor, a military officer, a former president, the president's wife and the daughter of a general who led a coup emerging as presidential hopefuls, although three of them face legal barriers to their candidacy, according to experts.”

So begins this article by Danilo Valladares from Inter Press Service, posted by Global Issues. 2011 is an election year in Guatemala and the intrigue is alive and well. What is clear is that the same old games are being played.